PUBLICATIONS
Globalization, Capital Taxation and Development: Evidence from a Macro-Historical Database with Matt Fischer-Post, Anders Jensen & Gabriel Zucman. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics October 2026 Online Appendix, Data & Codes, NBERWorking Paper 29819, WB Working Paper 9973. Coverage: VoxEU Blog, World Bank Blog
Effective Tax Rates, Firm Size, and the Global Minimum Tax with Anne Brockmeyer, Roel Dom and Camille Semelet.
Journal of Public Economics, September 2026 WB Working Paper 11090, EUTAX Observatory WP 14. Coverage: World Bank Blog,
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Lessons from Administrative Tax Data with Anne Brockmeyer, Pablo Garriga & Camille Semelet Journal of Development Economics, February 2025 Paper from 2020 Codes. Coverage: EconObservatory, UCL Stone Centre
The Equity of Tax Systems in Low and Middle Income Countries, with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Journal of Economic Perspectives, February 2024
Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Review of Economic Studies, September 2023. NBER Working Paper 27429 , WB Working Paper 9267, Codes. Coverage: VoxDev, World Bank
Corporate Taxation Under Weak Enforcement, with Mauricio Soto.
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2021. WB Working Paper 8524, Coverage: Estado de la Nacion.
How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira,
Journal of Finance, March 2021. NBER Working Paper No 23252, Coverage: VoxDev.
Size-Dependent Tax Enforcement and Compliance: Global Evidence and Aggregate Implications, with Roberto Fattal Jaef & Anders Jensen, Journal of Development Economics, September 2019. WB Working Paper 8363.
Digital Financial Services Go a Long Way: Transaction Costs and Financial Inclusion, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2018
Effective Tax Rates, Firm Size, and the Global Minimum Tax with Anne Brockmeyer, Roel Dom and Camille Semelet.
Journal of Public Economics, September 2026 WB Working Paper 11090, EUTAX Observatory WP 14. Coverage: World Bank Blog,
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Lessons from Administrative Tax Data with Anne Brockmeyer, Pablo Garriga & Camille Semelet Journal of Development Economics, February 2025 Paper from 2020 Codes. Coverage: EconObservatory, UCL Stone Centre
The Equity of Tax Systems in Low and Middle Income Countries, with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Journal of Economic Perspectives, February 2024
Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Review of Economic Studies, September 2023. NBER Working Paper 27429 , WB Working Paper 9267, Codes. Coverage: VoxDev, World Bank
Corporate Taxation Under Weak Enforcement, with Mauricio Soto.
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2021. WB Working Paper 8524, Coverage: Estado de la Nacion.
How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira,
Journal of Finance, March 2021. NBER Working Paper No 23252, Coverage: VoxDev.
Size-Dependent Tax Enforcement and Compliance: Global Evidence and Aggregate Implications, with Roberto Fattal Jaef & Anders Jensen, Journal of Development Economics, September 2019. WB Working Paper 8363.
Digital Financial Services Go a Long Way: Transaction Costs and Financial Inclusion, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2018
WORKING PAPERS
Automatic Exchanges of Tax Information and Offshore Tax Compliance: Evidence from Colombia with Helena Bonilla, Valentina Laverde, Juliana Londoño Velez, and Gabriel Zucman. July 2026.
Equity and Efficiency of Consumption Taxes: Evidence from India's GST, with Davi Bhering and Pulak Ghosh, July 2026
Algorithms and Bureaucrats: Evidence from Tax Audit Selection in Senegal with Anne Brockmeyer, Alipio Ferreira & Bassirou Sarr, WB Working Paper 11205 AEA RCT REGISTRY, July 2026
The transparency tax: Discouraging firm ownership via tax havens in Ecuador, with Alex Bajaña and Jakob Brounstein, May 2026
Horizontal Equity of Taxation: Citizen Beliefs and Policy Preferences, with Chris Hoy, Anders Jensen, and Mahvish Shaukat. March 2026.
Tax Progressivity and Inequality in Brazil: Evidence from Integrated Administrative Data with Theo Palomo, Davi Bhering, Thiago Scot, Luciana Barcarolo, Celso Campos, Javier Feinmann, Leonardo Moreira, and Gabriel Zucman, August 2025
Automatic Exchanges of Tax Information and Offshore Tax Compliance: Evidence from Colombia with Helena Bonilla, Valentina Laverde, Juliana Londoño Velez, and Gabriel Zucman. July 2026.
Equity and Efficiency of Consumption Taxes: Evidence from India's GST, with Davi Bhering and Pulak Ghosh, July 2026
Algorithms and Bureaucrats: Evidence from Tax Audit Selection in Senegal with Anne Brockmeyer, Alipio Ferreira & Bassirou Sarr, WB Working Paper 11205 AEA RCT REGISTRY, July 2026
The transparency tax: Discouraging firm ownership via tax havens in Ecuador, with Alex Bajaña and Jakob Brounstein, May 2026
Horizontal Equity of Taxation: Citizen Beliefs and Policy Preferences, with Chris Hoy, Anders Jensen, and Mahvish Shaukat. March 2026.
Tax Progressivity and Inequality in Brazil: Evidence from Integrated Administrative Data with Theo Palomo, Davi Bhering, Thiago Scot, Luciana Barcarolo, Celso Campos, Javier Feinmann, Leonardo Moreira, and Gabriel Zucman, August 2025
IN PROGRESS
Technology and Taxation in Firm. Networks: Evidence from Rwanda’s electronic invoicing expansion, with Lucas Zavala, Kieran Byrne, Florence Kondylis and John Karangwa
Governments are increasingly using digital technologies for regulation, yet little is known about how they affect the growth and formalization of small businesses. We study Rwanda’s expansion of electronic invoicing, under which large firms could deduct business expenses only if supported by compliant invoices, creating incentives for upstream adoption among their small suppliers. We combine administrative tax data with an original firm survey measuring technology adoption costs, and exploit pre-reform production networks to construct a shift-share measure of firms’ exposure to the reform. Greater exposure increases e-invoicing adoption by 5 percentage points, raises income tax filing, and increases reported sales by about 10 percent. However, adoption costs—including investments in digital infrastructure and greater perceived regulatory exposure—substantially attenuate firms’ responses to these incentives. We develop and calibrate a model of technology adoption in buyer-supplier networks that combines our estimates of demand and adoption costs to evaluate e-invoicing mandates and distinguish their effects on adopters and non-adopters. Excluding tax-enforcement gains for large firms, we estimate that the mandate is welfare-improving if the government’s social value of formalizing a small firm exceeds USD 600.
Towards a Cashless Economy? Evidence from the Elasticity of Cash Deposits of Mexican Firms, with Sean Higgins & Anders Jensen. Oct 2020. (Slides)
Technology and Taxation in Firm. Networks: Evidence from Rwanda’s electronic invoicing expansion, with Lucas Zavala, Kieran Byrne, Florence Kondylis and John Karangwa
Governments are increasingly using digital technologies for regulation, yet little is known about how they affect the growth and formalization of small businesses. We study Rwanda’s expansion of electronic invoicing, under which large firms could deduct business expenses only if supported by compliant invoices, creating incentives for upstream adoption among their small suppliers. We combine administrative tax data with an original firm survey measuring technology adoption costs, and exploit pre-reform production networks to construct a shift-share measure of firms’ exposure to the reform. Greater exposure increases e-invoicing adoption by 5 percentage points, raises income tax filing, and increases reported sales by about 10 percent. However, adoption costs—including investments in digital infrastructure and greater perceived regulatory exposure—substantially attenuate firms’ responses to these incentives. We develop and calibrate a model of technology adoption in buyer-supplier networks that combines our estimates of demand and adoption costs to evaluate e-invoicing mandates and distinguish their effects on adopters and non-adopters. Excluding tax-enforcement gains for large firms, we estimate that the mandate is welfare-improving if the government’s social value of formalizing a small firm exceeds USD 600.
Towards a Cashless Economy? Evidence from the Elasticity of Cash Deposits of Mexican Firms, with Sean Higgins & Anders Jensen. Oct 2020. (Slides)
