PUBLICATIONS
Globalization, Capital Taxation and Development: Evidence from a Macro-Historical Database with Matt Fischer-Post, Anders Jensen & Gabriel Zucman. Forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Online Appendix, Data & Codes, NBER Working Paper 29819, WB Working Paper 9973. Coverage: VoxEU Blog, World Bank Blog
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Lessons from Administrative Tax Data with Anne Brockmeyer, Pablo Garriga & Camille Semelet Journal of Development Economics, February 2025 Paper from 2020 Codes. Coverage: EconObservatory, UCL Stone Centre
The Equity of Tax Systems in Low and Middle Income Countries, with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Journal of Economic Perspectives, February 2024
Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Review of Economic Studies, September 2023. NBER Working Paper 27429 , WB Working Paper 9267, Codes. Coverage: VoxDev, World Bank
Corporate Taxation Under Weak Enforcement, with Mauricio Soto.
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2021. WB Working Paper 8524, Coverage: Estado de la Nacion.
How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira,
Journal of Finance, March 2021. NBER Working Paper No 23252, Coverage: VoxDev.
Size-Dependent Tax Enforcement and Compliance: Global Evidence and Aggregate Implications, with Roberto Fattal Jaef & Anders Jensen, Journal of Development Economics, September 2019. WB Working Paper 8363.
Digital Financial Services Go a Long Way: Transaction Costs and Financial Inclusion, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2018
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Lessons from Administrative Tax Data with Anne Brockmeyer, Pablo Garriga & Camille Semelet Journal of Development Economics, February 2025 Paper from 2020 Codes. Coverage: EconObservatory, UCL Stone Centre
The Equity of Tax Systems in Low and Middle Income Countries, with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Journal of Economic Perspectives, February 2024
Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen.
Review of Economic Studies, September 2023. NBER Working Paper 27429 , WB Working Paper 9267, Codes. Coverage: VoxDev, World Bank
Corporate Taxation Under Weak Enforcement, with Mauricio Soto.
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2021. WB Working Paper 8524, Coverage: Estado de la Nacion.
How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira,
Journal of Finance, March 2021. NBER Working Paper No 23252, Coverage: VoxDev.
Size-Dependent Tax Enforcement and Compliance: Global Evidence and Aggregate Implications, with Roberto Fattal Jaef & Anders Jensen, Journal of Development Economics, September 2019. WB Working Paper 8363.
Digital Financial Services Go a Long Way: Transaction Costs and Financial Inclusion, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2018
WORKING PAPERS
Effective Tax Rates, Firm Size, and the Global Minimum Tax with Anne Brockmeyer, Roel Dom and Camille Semelet. R&R Journal of Public Economics WB Working Paper 11090, EUTAX Observatory WP 14. Coverage: World Bank Blog, December 2025
Equity versus Efficiency of Indirect Taxes: Evidence from a Large Reform in India, with Davi Bhering and Pulak Ghosh, December 2025
Tax Progressivity and Inequality in Brazil: Evidence from Integrated Administrative Data with Theo Palomo, Davi Bhering, Thiago Scot, Luciana Barcarolo, Celso Campos, Javier Feinmann, Leonardo Moreira, and Gabriel Zucman, August 2025
Algorithms and Bureaucrats: Evidence from Tax Audit Selection in Senegal with Anne Brockmeyer, Alipio Ferreira & Bassirou Sarr, WB Working Paper 11205 AEA RCT REGISTRY, May 2025
Horizontal Equity of Taxation: Citizen Beliefs and Policy Preferences, with Chris Hoy, Anders Jensen, and Mahvish Shaukat. March 2026.
Effective Tax Rates, Firm Size, and the Global Minimum Tax with Anne Brockmeyer, Roel Dom and Camille Semelet. R&R Journal of Public Economics WB Working Paper 11090, EUTAX Observatory WP 14. Coverage: World Bank Blog, December 2025
Equity versus Efficiency of Indirect Taxes: Evidence from a Large Reform in India, with Davi Bhering and Pulak Ghosh, December 2025
Tax Progressivity and Inequality in Brazil: Evidence from Integrated Administrative Data with Theo Palomo, Davi Bhering, Thiago Scot, Luciana Barcarolo, Celso Campos, Javier Feinmann, Leonardo Moreira, and Gabriel Zucman, August 2025
Algorithms and Bureaucrats: Evidence from Tax Audit Selection in Senegal with Anne Brockmeyer, Alipio Ferreira & Bassirou Sarr, WB Working Paper 11205 AEA RCT REGISTRY, May 2025
Horizontal Equity of Taxation: Citizen Beliefs and Policy Preferences, with Chris Hoy, Anders Jensen, and Mahvish Shaukat. March 2026.
IN PROGRESS
The transparency tax: Discouraging firm ownership via tax havens, with Alex Bajaña and Jakob Brounstein
How can countries act unilaterally to curb tax haven usage and raise business ownership transparency? We address this question by analyzing an innovative anti-evasion policy: Ecuador’s corporate income tax surcharge on firms whose owners are tax haven residents. We compare baseline haven-owned firms against other foreign-owned firms using a difference-in-differences design. The reform induced 20 percent of haven-owned firms to report owners outside havens, with new owners predominantly identified as individuals rather than firms, thereby enhancing ownership transparency. Exposed firms reduced their transactions with tax havens and increased tax payments in Ecuador by 17 percent, with no impact on payroll and investment. These findings suggest that a corrective “Pigouvian” tax targeting ownership secrecy improves transparency and reduces tax erosion at limited efficiency cost
Technology, tax, and domestic trade: Evidence from Rwanda’s electronic invoicing expansion, with Lucas Zavala, Kieran Byrne, Florence Kondylis and John Karangwa
Digital technology facilitates trade but also increases the visibility of firms’ activity to the government. This paper examines the trade-off between technology adoption and regulatory exposure in the context of electronic billing machines (EBM) and business taxation in Rwanda. In December 2020, the government mandated that large firms’ tax deductions for purchases be validated by corresponding EBM receipts. Using a shift-share design, we find that receipt demand from large clients predicts EBM adoption and growth of small suppliers. We combine a model of invoicing in supply chains and a nationwide survey of firms to shed light on the underlying mechanisms.
Towards a Cashless Economy? Evidence from the Elasticity of Cash Deposits of Mexican Firms, with Sean Higgins & Anders Jensen. Oct 2020. (Slides)
The transparency tax: Discouraging firm ownership via tax havens, with Alex Bajaña and Jakob Brounstein
How can countries act unilaterally to curb tax haven usage and raise business ownership transparency? We address this question by analyzing an innovative anti-evasion policy: Ecuador’s corporate income tax surcharge on firms whose owners are tax haven residents. We compare baseline haven-owned firms against other foreign-owned firms using a difference-in-differences design. The reform induced 20 percent of haven-owned firms to report owners outside havens, with new owners predominantly identified as individuals rather than firms, thereby enhancing ownership transparency. Exposed firms reduced their transactions with tax havens and increased tax payments in Ecuador by 17 percent, with no impact on payroll and investment. These findings suggest that a corrective “Pigouvian” tax targeting ownership secrecy improves transparency and reduces tax erosion at limited efficiency cost
Technology, tax, and domestic trade: Evidence from Rwanda’s electronic invoicing expansion, with Lucas Zavala, Kieran Byrne, Florence Kondylis and John Karangwa
Digital technology facilitates trade but also increases the visibility of firms’ activity to the government. This paper examines the trade-off between technology adoption and regulatory exposure in the context of electronic billing machines (EBM) and business taxation in Rwanda. In December 2020, the government mandated that large firms’ tax deductions for purchases be validated by corresponding EBM receipts. Using a shift-share design, we find that receipt demand from large clients predicts EBM adoption and growth of small suppliers. We combine a model of invoicing in supply chains and a nationwide survey of firms to shed light on the underlying mechanisms.
Towards a Cashless Economy? Evidence from the Elasticity of Cash Deposits of Mexican Firms, with Sean Higgins & Anders Jensen. Oct 2020. (Slides)
