PUBLICATIONS
Corporate Taxation Under Weak Enforcement, with Mauricio Soto.
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2021. WB Policy Research Working Paper 8524, Estado de la Nacion.
How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira,
Journal of Finance, March 2021. NBER Working Paper No 23252, VoxDev Summary.
Size-Dependent Tax Enforcement and Compliance: Global Evidence and Aggregate Implications, with Roberto Fattal Jaef & Anders Jensen, Journal of Development Economics, September 2019. WB Policy Research Working Paper 8363.
Digital Financial Services Go a Long Way: Transaction Costs and Financial Inclusion, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2018
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2021. WB Policy Research Working Paper 8524, Estado de la Nacion.
How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira,
Journal of Finance, March 2021. NBER Working Paper No 23252, VoxDev Summary.
Size-Dependent Tax Enforcement and Compliance: Global Evidence and Aggregate Implications, with Roberto Fattal Jaef & Anders Jensen, Journal of Development Economics, September 2019. WB Policy Research Working Paper 8363.
Digital Financial Services Go a Long Way: Transaction Costs and Financial Inclusion, with Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins & Enrique Seira, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2018
WORKING PAPERS
R&R at Review of Economic Studies Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen. Jan 2022. NBER Working Paper No 27429 , WB Policy Research Working Paper 9267. VoxDev Blog, World Bank Blog , Replication Codes.
New Globalization and Factor Income Taxation with Matt Fischer-Post, Anders Jensen & Gabriel Zucman. March 2022
Online Appendix, Data & Codes, VoxEU Blog, World Bank Blog
Towards a Cashless Economy? Evidence from the Elasticity of Cash Deposits of Mexican Firms, with Sean Higgins & Anders Jensen. Oct 2020. (Slides)
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Micro Tax Data Simulations Across Countries with Anne Brockmeyer and Camille Semelet. August 2020. EconObservatory Summary, Replication Codes.
R&R at Review of Economic Studies Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution with Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen. Jan 2022. NBER Working Paper No 27429 , WB Policy Research Working Paper 9267. VoxDev Blog, World Bank Blog , Replication Codes.
New Globalization and Factor Income Taxation with Matt Fischer-Post, Anders Jensen & Gabriel Zucman. March 2022
Online Appendix, Data & Codes, VoxEU Blog, World Bank Blog
Towards a Cashless Economy? Evidence from the Elasticity of Cash Deposits of Mexican Firms, with Sean Higgins & Anders Jensen. Oct 2020. (Slides)
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Micro Tax Data Simulations Across Countries with Anne Brockmeyer and Camille Semelet. August 2020. EconObservatory Summary, Replication Codes.
WORK IN PROGRESS
Tax Incidence in the Presence of an Informal Sector: Evidence from the VAT in Mexico, with Lucie Gadenne, Anders Jensen & Mariana Racimo (SLIDES)
The Value-Added Tax (VAT) is a key source of tax revenue worldwide. The existing literature considers the incidence of the VAT in rich countries but not in developing countries, where the presence of an informal (non-taxed) sector could alter the welfare impacts of VAT reforms. In 2014 Mexico substantially increased the VAT rate in border regions. We use administrative data on the universe of retailers in both the formal and informal sector, and observe firm-level prices, sales, profits and employment. On-going work quantifies how much of the tax increase is paid by workers, firms and consumers in the formal and informal sectors, and how the incidence depends on the nature of competition between those sectors in different markets.
Tax Incidence in the Presence of an Informal Sector: Evidence from the VAT in Mexico, with Lucie Gadenne, Anders Jensen & Mariana Racimo (SLIDES)
The Value-Added Tax (VAT) is a key source of tax revenue worldwide. The existing literature considers the incidence of the VAT in rich countries but not in developing countries, where the presence of an informal (non-taxed) sector could alter the welfare impacts of VAT reforms. In 2014 Mexico substantially increased the VAT rate in border regions. We use administrative data on the universe of retailers in both the formal and informal sector, and observe firm-level prices, sales, profits and employment. On-going work quantifies how much of the tax increase is paid by workers, firms and consumers in the formal and informal sectors, and how the incidence depends on the nature of competition between those sectors in different markets.
Audit Selection under Weak Fiscal Capacity: A Field Experiment in Senegal, with Anne Brockmeyer, Alipio Ferreira & Bassirou Sarr, AEA RCT REGISTRY
Should low-income countries leave discretion to tax inspectors to select firms for audit or should selection be determined by risk-scoring algorithms? Does the optimal amount of discretion depend on the quantity of third-party information available and its ease of access for tax inspectors? In a context with weak fiscal capacity, leveraging inspectors’ private information could be valuable but opens the door to discrimination and corruption. This project tests which selection method (discretionary inspector selection or algorithm selection based on risk scores) is most effective in detecting firm non-compliance and increasing audit yield. An experiment in collaboration with the tax administration in Senegal is currently in the field.
Should low-income countries leave discretion to tax inspectors to select firms for audit or should selection be determined by risk-scoring algorithms? Does the optimal amount of discretion depend on the quantity of third-party information available and its ease of access for tax inspectors? In a context with weak fiscal capacity, leveraging inspectors’ private information could be valuable but opens the door to discrimination and corruption. This project tests which selection method (discretionary inspector selection or algorithm selection based on risk scores) is most effective in detecting firm non-compliance and increasing audit yield. An experiment in collaboration with the tax administration in Senegal is currently in the field.
